The Future of AI series builds on a set of key AI questions identified by Arb Research to provide more accurate models of future AI progress.

Start here.

Share your forecasts and help contribute to more accurate aggregate predictions on critical open questions spanning frontier AI models, lab safety teams, the EU AI Act, and more.

We are grateful for the research efforts of @Gavin, @NunoSempere, @David Mathers, and @Misha_Yagudin in identifying these questions. Find their full list here. Thank you also to Metaculus AI Forecasting Research Analyst @Will Aldred for developing a subset of Arb Research’s identified questions for forecasting on Metaculus.