Forecasting is the art and science of predicting the future. Forecasting can help us get a better sense of what will happen in the future, so that we can prepare appropriately. It is a significant aspect of EA strategy around pandemic preparedness (see biosecurity), AI alignment, animal product alternatives, and many other topics.

Forecasting is a feedback loop. Forecasters make predictions and then when those predictions resolve forecasters get scores. This allows the forecasters to improve and allows everyone else to know who the best forecasters are. In the future, we can weigh the forecasts of the better forecasters more heavily.

Tutorials

• Alex Lawsen's video series
• Metaculus Tutorials
• Video tutorial for how to use Manifold and Metaculus