Vox's Future Perfect highlights long-term thinking and evidence-based ways to improve human and animal welfare. Each year, Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews, Kelsey Piper, and Sigal Samuel forecast the year to come and evaluate their previous predictions.
Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts.
On January 1st, they'll publish their predictions — you can forecast along with them, see your aggregated predictions published on Vox.com, and compete for the $2,500 prize pool.
Start forecasting 2025 with questions like:
- Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?
- Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
- Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026?
- Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
In addition to the main question feed, this tournament's questions appear in the Future Perfect Community, co-created by Metaculus and Future Perfect. Communities are a new feature that lets users create and share forecasting questions on any topics they care about and can be publicly listed or kept unlisted.
Interested in building your own? Reach out to us, or explore existing publicly listed communities.