Some projects take humans much longer (e.g. proving Fermat's last theorem) but they can almost always be decomposed into subtasks that don't require full global context (even tho that's often helpful for humans).
At least for math, I don't think this is the right way to frame things: finding the right decomposition is often the hard part! "Average math undergrad"-level mathematical reasoning at vastly superhuman speed probably gets you a 1-year artificial mathematician, but I doubt it gets you a 50-year one.
At least for math, I don't think this is the right way to frame things: finding the right decomposition is often the hard part! "Average math undergrad"-level mathematical reasoning at vastly superhuman speed probably gets you a 1-year artificial mathematician, but I doubt it gets you a 50-year one.
I wrote a set of markets for this when Richard made the original predictions. None have much liquidity but I think you all can fix that.