I am recently seeing posts that implicitly, and without stating so, assume that human progress is "linear". I think there are good reasons to both believe that is true but also to believe it is not true.
I also really like RP's work on explicitly comparing causes and teasing out the assumptions behind them.
But these are all "unconnected dots" - is there some place where one can, in a simple manner, see how one's beliefs, or even uncertainties, impact all causes? For the lay person, ideally like some kind of calculator? Some example considerations:
-Can humans be significantly more happy in a "techno-future" than they were pre agriculture?
-Are human lives worth more than animals?
-Are human lives worth more than digital minds?
-How utilitarian are you?
-Do you value the birth of a person X% as much as saving a person's life?
Etc.
It might not need to cover every single considerations, but at least the most important ones.
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Hiii! I found this list of “Crucial questions for longtermists” to be quite impressive. It is also listed as part of “A central directory for open research questions,” which is broader than your question.
This doesn't fully answer it (there's a wide array of quesitons ther), but I think RP have made a great effort to at least partly answer these 3 at least in their cross-cause cost effectiveness model.
-Are human lives worth more than animals?
-Are human lives worth more than digital minds?
-How utilitarian are you?
https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/rethink-priorities-cross-cause-cost-effectiveness-model-introduction-and-overview