I'm surprised that GPT-4 can't play tic tac toe given that there's evidence that it can play chess pretty well (though it eventually makes illegal moves).

Thanks for spotting that. I updated the post.

Excellent story! I believe there's strong demand for scenarios explaining how current AI systems could go on to have a catastrophic effect on the world and the story you described sounds very plausible.

I like how the story combines several key AI safety concepts such as instrumental convergence and deceptive alignment with a description of the internal dynamics of the company and its interaction with the outside world. 

AI risk has been criticized as implausible given the current state of AI (e.g. chatbots) but your realistic story describes how AI in its present form could eventually cause a catastrophe if it's not developed safely.

Thanks for writing the post.

I know the sequence is about criticisms of labs but I personally think I would get more value if the post focused mainly on describing what the lab is doing with less about evaluating the organization because I think that the reader can form their own opinion themselves given an informative description. To use more technical language, I would be more interested in a descriptive post than a normative one.

My high-level opinion is that the post is somewhat more negative than I would like. My general sentiment on Conjecture is that it's one of the few AI safety labs that has been established outside of the bay area and the US.

As a result, Conjecture seems to have significantly boosted London as an AI safety hub which is extremely valuable because London is much more accessible for Europeans interested in AI safety than the bay area.

I think only person can do this every year because any other 0-word post would be a duplicate.

Great post. What I find most surprising is how small the scalable alignment team at OpenAI is. Though similar teams in DeepMind and Anthropic are probably bigger.

I added them to the list of technical research organizations. Sorry for the delay.

Inspiring progress! This post is a positive update for me.

Good point. It's important to note that black swans are subjective and depend on the person. For example, a Christmas turkey's slaughter is a black swan for it but not for its butcher.