Research Fellow at Open Philanthropy.
Previously at the Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research.
Quick question about reputation scores: "Every time a question resolves, the reputation is updated depending on how many Metaculus points a user got relative to other users (with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 10)" -- does this mean that predicting on questions late in the life of a question is harmful for one's reputation? Because predicting late means that you'll typically get fewer points than an early predictor.
this might be due to a change on EA forum since you initially posted this post, but the left and right columns of the table of studies are quite unreadable for me on desktop, on both Chrome and Edge. see screenshot for what it looks like from my end. is there any other format I can read this post in?
I was commenting because I've been curious about it and it seemed like info that would often be present alongside whether or not there was a prison sentence at all, so it seems like it wouldn't have been much marginal work to collect it on your first pass (though obviously much more work now, unless you were going back through the list for some other reason).
There do exist questions about how long people will be sentenced to prison around this (like this Metaculus one), but it also wasn't obvious to me that you were going for exclusively decision relevant info - how is jurisdiction of crimes decision relevant?
Though maybe I should have just said interesting rather than useful.
It’s also possible that something has changed recently that makes this a better practice now than it used to be — to use your example, maybe water access is better now than it was historically. Maybe beans weren’t prevalent in this region or a strain of beans that were worse for soaking were previously more common.