I feel like @Zvi  put it well when he wrote,

I don’t see any wolves. So why are you proposing to have a boy watch the sheep and yell ‘wolf’ if a wolf shows up? Stop crying wolf.

Thanks Julia for writing this. It’s correct all the way around.

I can’t help but feel though that there is something a little mean-spirited in targeting those donating to Notre Dame, the opera, etc. There is a common and (in my opinion) somewhat toxic pattern where if someone spends their money on yachts, mansions, etc., then nobody complains but as soon as they do something even a little bit public spirited then all of a sudden everyone feels free to criticize. Like, we can have plenty of objections to MacKenzie Scott’s philanthropic choices, but shouldn’t Jeff Bezos get at least as much commentary for his non-philanthropic choices?

What is an HEA?

Can you give an example of the sort of prediction market you’re referring to, or what kind of consequences there have been?

Is donating via payroll deduction a simpler way to achieve this result?

Here’s a summary of UK tax treatment of charitable donations. As I understand it, donations are sometime deductible, and sometimes eligible for gift aid, but never both.

GWWC has a somewhat complicated treatment of gift aid; you can count gift aid towards your pledge, but

If you are counting Gift Aid towards your pledge it is recommended to calculate your pledge amount based on your pre-tax income. If you are not claiming Gift Aid or any tax benefit then it is recommended to calculate your pledge amount based on your post-tax income.

The evidence is quite strong. You can most likely get more detail than you ever wanted from the GiveWell review.

It is also highly controversial to state that charity doesn't begin at home

Completely different scale. Not that we can determine what is true/correct by polling; but 29% of people chose to give internationally, while I would wager less than 1% would endorse the view that we should let humans suffer and die because otherwise they might eat animals.

My impression is that most EA oriented charities can already accept tax-advantaged donations from most countries via intermediaries. Is there a particular country/charity combination you are thinking of that is not currently possible?

New Incentives