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Global moratorium on AGI, now (Twitter). Founder of CEEALAR (née the EA Hotel;


No. I can only get crypto-backed loans (e.g. Aave). Currently on ~10% interest; no guarantee they won't go above 15% over 5 years + counterparty risk to my collateral.

But I don't even think it's negative financial EV (see above - because I'm 50% on not having to pay it back at all because doom, and I also think the EV of my investments is >2x over the timeframe).

I mean, in terms of signalling it's not great to bet people (or people from a community) who are basically on your side, i.e. think AI x-risk is a problem, but just not that big a problem; as opposed to people who think the whole thing is nonsense and are actively hostile to you and dismissive of your concerns.

I've been getting a few offers from EAs recently. I might accept some. What I'd really like to do though is bet against an e/acc.

I originally intended this bet to be made with enemies, not friends[1]. i.e. I was hoping an e/acc would take it, rather than an EA!

  1. ^

    I'm using "friend" in a general sense here, as in someone broadly value aligned. I don't actually know Vasco.

Did you follow the thread(s) all the way to the end? I do see the overcollateralized part of the lock-up again. And I'm planning on holding ~50% long term (i.e. past 5 years) because I'm on ~50% that we make it past then.

Alas, Eliezer did not answer my question at the end.

Unless you plan to spend all of your money before you would owe money back

This would not be good for you unless you were an immoral sociopath with no concern for the social opprobrium that results from not honouring the bet. 

Or unless you're betting on high rates of returns to capital

There is some element of this for me (I hope to more than 2x my capital in worlds where we survive). But it's not the main reason.

The main reason it's good for me is that it helps reduce the likelihood of doom. That is my main goal for the next few years. If the interest this is getting gets even one more person to take near-term AI doom as seriously as I do, then that's a win. Also the $x to PauseAI now is worth >>$2x to PauseAI in 2028.

you can probably borrow cheaply. E.g. if you have $2X in investments, you can sell them, invest $X at 2X leverage, and effectively borrow the other $X.

This is not without risk (of being margin called in a 50% drawdown)[1]. Else why wouldn't people be doing this as standard? I've not really heard of anyone doing it.

  1. ^

    And it could also be costly in borrowing fees for the leverage.

Unfortunately it seems as though bets like this[1] (for significant sums of money) might be truly unprecedented. Still working on trying to establish workable mechanisms for trust / ensuring the payout (but I think having it in terms of donations makes things easier).

  1. ^

    Peer-to-peer, between people who don't know each other.

Yes. Also another consideration is that I expect my high risk investing strategy to return >200% over the time in question, in worlds where we survive (all it would take is 1/10 of my start-up investments to blow up, for example, or crypto going up another >2x).

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