Nicely done! The college campus forecasting clubs and competition model feels extremely promising to me. Really great to see a dedicated effort start to take off.

I'm especially happy to see an ACX Manifund mini-grant get realized so quickly. I admit I was skeptical of these grants.

Excited to see the next iteration of this, and hopefully many more to come on college campuses all over!

Metaculus is getting better at writing quickly-resolving questions, and we can probably help write some good ones for the next iteration of OPTIC.

There's a certain eye for news that is interesting, forecastable, and short-term one develops. Our Beginner tournaments (current, 2023 Q1, 2022 Q4) explicitly only have questions that resolve within 1 week, so you can see some inspiration there.

 

If you find me wandering around the Gather Town tomorrow at the event, be warned that I may talk to whoever will listen about the Tyler Cowen vs. Scott Alexander kerfuffle on this topic going on right now :-).

[I wrote this comment on LW, copying to this post. Shouldn't that happen automatically?]

Nice post! I'll throw another signal boost for the Metaculus hackathon that OP links, since this is the first time Metaculus is sharing their whole 1M db of individual forecasts (not just the db of questions & resolutions which is already available). You have to apply to get access though. I'll link it again even though OP already did: https://metaculus.medium.com/announcing-metaculuss-million-predictions-hackathon-91c2dfa3f39

There are nice cash prizes too.

As the OP writes, I think most the ideas here would be valid entries in the hackathon, though the emphasis is on forecast aggregation & methods for scoring individuals. I'm particularly interested in decay of predictions idea. I don't think we know how well predictions age, and what the right strategy for updating your predictions should be for long-running questions.