Observatorio de Riesgos Catastróficos Globales (ORCG) is a scientific diplomacy organization that emerged in February 2023 to formulate governance proposals that allow the comprehensive management of different global risks in Spanish-speaking countries. We connect decision-makers with experts to achieve our mission, producing evidence-based publications. In this context, we have worked on several projects on advanced artificial intelligence risks, biological risks, and food risks such as nuclear winter.

Since its inception, the organization has accumulated valuable experience and generated extensive production. This includes four reports, one produced in collaboration with the Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED). In addition, we have produced four academic articles, three of which have been accepted for publication in specialized journals. We have also created three policy recommendations and/or working documents and four notes in collaboration with institutions such as the Simon Institute for Long-term Governance. In addition, the organization has developed abundant informative material, such as web articles, videos, conferences, and infographics.

During these nine months of activity, the Observatory has established relationships with actors in Spanish-speaking countries, especially highlighting the collaboration with the regional cooperation spaces of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), as well as with risk management offices at the national level. In this context, we have supported the formulation of Argentina's National Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction 2024-2030. Our contribution stands out with a specific chapter on extreme food catastrophes, which was incorporated into the work manual of the Information and Risk Scenarios Commission (Technical Commission No. 7).

We invite you to send any questions and/or requests to info@riesgoscatastroficosglobales.com. You can contribute to the mitigation of Global Catastrophic Risks by donating.

Documents

Reports

1. Food Security in Argentina in the event of an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS),  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11906.96969.
2. Artificial intelligence risk management in Spain, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18451.86562.
3. Proposal for the prevention and detection of emerging infectious diseases in Guatemala, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28217.75365.
4. Latin America and global catastrophic risks: transforming risk management DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25294.02886.

Papers 

1. Resilient food solutions to avoid mass starvation during a nuclear winter in Argentina, REDER Journal, Accepted, pending publication.
2. Systematic review of taxonomies of risks associated with artificial intelligence, Analecta Política Journal, Accepted, pending publication.
3. The EU AI Act: A pioneering effort to regulate frontier AI?, Journal IberamIA,  Accepted, pending publication.
4. Operationalizing AI Global Governance Democratization, submitted to call for papers of Office of the Envoy of the Secretary General for Technology, Non-public document.

Policy brief and work documents

1. RCG Position paper: AI Act trilogue.
2. Operationalising the definition of highly capable AI.
3. PNRRD Argentina 2024-2030 chapter proposal “Scenarios for Abrupt Reduction of Solar Light”, *Published as an internal government document.

Collaborations

1. [Simon Institute] Response to Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 1: “To Think and Act for Future Generations”.
2. [Simon Institute] Response to Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 2: “Strengthening the International Response to Complex Global Shocks – An Emergency Platform” .
3. [Simon Institute] Response to Our Common Agenda Policy Brief 5: A Global Digital Compact — an Open, Free and Secure Digital Future for All.
4. [EPOCH]  Paper “AI capabilities can be significantly improved without expensive retraining”, published in arXiv.

Outreach

Web articles

1. Global catastrophic risks law approved in the United States.
2. Proposals for the AI Regulatory Sandbox in Spain.
3. A survey of concrete risks derived from Artificial Intelligence.
4. Spanish translation of “How Much Should Governments Pay to Prevent Catastrophes? Longtermism's Limited Role”.
5. Biosafety in BSL-3, BSL-3+ and BSL-4 Laboratories: Mapping and Recommendations for Latin America.

Video

1. Presentation Food Security in Argentina in the event of an ASRS.
2. Presentation  Risk management of Artificial Intelligence in Spain.
3. Presentation Detection and prevention of emerging infectious diseases in Guatemala.

Infographics

1. Infographics of the Report food security in Argentina in the event of an Abrupt Reduction of Sunlight Scenario (ASRS).
2. Infographics report risk management of Artificial Intelligence in Spain.
3. Infographics: report Proposals for the prevention and detection of emerging infectious diseases (EID) in Guatemala.
4. Infographics report: Latin America and global catastrophic risks: transforming risk management.

Events

1. EAGx Berlín, Presentation “Regional Diversity in Global Catastrophic Risk and AI risk Management”, Guillem Bas.
2. CTS Ecuador, Presentation “Classification and analysis of risks derived from artificial intelligence” Monica Ulloa.
3. Workshop “Pluralism in Existential Risk Studies”, Oxford, Monica Ulloa.
4. Adevinta Spain Meetup, Barcelona, Presentation “AI Governance: Opportunities and Challenges”, Guillem Bas.
5. ESCT Colloquium, Colombia: “Measuring and valuing disasters: a path towards global resilience”, Mónica Ulloa.

Awards

1. Santander–CIDOB 35 under 35 list, Guillem Bas.