Types of shelters:

Positive features:

Problems:

Large shelters

·       Capable of housing several people in each structure and thus restoring civilization

·       Complex technology could survive inside it

·       Universal defense

·       Examples: large underground city, Mars colony

·       Could be used as a command  and coordination center for the rebuilding of civilization

(Beckstead)

·       Expensive

·       Location is known and could be targeted in the case of war

·       Large shelters are attractive targets for countervalue strikes

·       People from outside could try to go inside, leading to contamination from contagious diseases

·       Terrorists could appear inside the shelter and destroy it

·       Hostile agent could use a shelter as starting point for a Doomsday attack, hoping to survive inside

·       Internal conflicts between people in shelter may result in its destruction

Smaller shelters

·       A large amount of shelters in unknown locations increases survivability

·       High probability that at least some of them will survive

·       Examples: basements, subways, ships

·       Existence of many shalters could use the stochastic nature of some catastrophes where  effect varies many times in different places of the Earth’s surface, and some places are safer

·       Weaker defense

·       Shorter time of independent survival

·       Not enough people in one place for restarting civilization

·       Not a universal defense

Universal shelter

Good, as we don’t know what type of a catastrophe will happen

·       Not enough defense for any particular catastrophe

·       Expensive

·       Could be obsolete by the time construction is completed, as new risks would have appeared

Specialized shelters

·       Built for only one type of risk: biological or nuclear or other.

·       Equipped with needed decontamination facilities

·       Construction could be started when the nature of the impending catastrophe is clear

Different types of shelters are needed for different risks, and they will not help in the case of a complex catastrophe.

Low tech shelters

Old Cold War shelters could be used for a low price.

Most risks are associated with new super-technologies, that is biotech, nanotech and AI, and old shelters will provide little defense against them

High tech shelters

Could provide adequate defense against biotech and maybe nanotech risks, and excellent defense against impact risks and nuclear war risks.

·       No shelter could work against Unfriendly AI

·       High tech shelters require creation of the same technologies from which they will give protection

·       Nuclear war as a means of war will obsolete after the creation of nanotech, so nuclear defense will be of little value

Independent shelters

·       Best shelter should have its own energy and oxygen supply, and leave no traces on the outside. It requires nuclear power.

·       The best type of such shelters are nuclear submarines

·       It may require food independence— that is the ability to grow one’s own food

·       Energy and oxygen independency makes shelter much more expensive.

·       Nuclear power carries its own risks

·       Thermodynamics require heat dissipation system, which could unmask shelter

Long-term shelters

Longer protection time provides for a better defense against a wide range of catastrophes, as nature tends to return to normal conditions, but after long time periods. Nuclear winter could last a decade, and radioactive contamination – several decades. Biological de-contamination and ecology rebuilding may also require decades.

·       Smaller and more isolated shelters provide less survival time

·       Long-term shelters are larger, more expensive and less secret

·       They are more vulnerable

·       Some types of catastrophes may require a 50 year shelter, as in the case of a large cobalt bomb explosion

Types of risks for which refuges are most suitable

·       Multipandemic – several simultaneous pandemics, genetically engineered dangerous animals and insects

·       Cobalt bomb explosion and global radioactive contamination by other sources such as nuclear strikes on all world nuclear power plants

·       All of the above combined with nuclear winter

·       Nuclear war of much larger scale than it was possible during the Cold war, may be due to cheap nukes creation

·       War which is using larger armies of autonomous killer robots or small drones (with limited AI and limited ability to self-replicate)

·       Asteroid impact of precise size (several km)

·       Global chemical contamination

·       Reversible global warming on a scale of 10-30 C

·       Large, but short flood basalt event

Not suitable for (because of overkill):

·       Unfriendly AI

·       Aliens and the SETI-attack

·       Grey goo

·       Slow bioweapons (like AIDS)

·       Simulation shutdown

·       System crisis and long insurgency

·       Recourses depletion

·       Runaway irreversible global warming

·       “Black holes” on accelerator

·       Very long term environment damage

·       Earth core degassing

Not suitable for (because of underkill):

·       Natural pandemic

·       Ordinary nuclear war

·       Small global warming

·       Supervolcano eruption

What should shelters preserve?

·       Around 100 humans in perfect gender mix for further reproduction, in perfect health, without transmittable diseases, with high genetic variants, highly educated, and prepared for the rebuilding of civilization

·       Knowledge: books, skills

·       Seeds and instruments for rebuilding

·       Values

·       Human history and culture backup

·       Frozen eggs and sperm

What it should not preserve:

·       Weapons of mass destruction

·       Other sources of global risks

·       Dangerous ideologies

How bunkers could increase global risks?

·       Doomsday blackmailers could put themselves in such bunkers (Dr. Strangelove-style)

·       Survivors from the bunkers could continue war between themselves

·       Dangerous technologies could be preserved in bunkers or even their development could be continued there.

·       Existing shelters may create the illusionary feeling of safety and encourage more risky behavior.

·       Khan said that building an invulnerable bunker could be provocation to start nuclear war for the adversary

Building bunkers could be part of local efforts on x-risks prevention, which don’t depend on larger cooperation. So, it could benefit from the activity of people who were unable to participate by some reasons in global cooperation in risk prevention.

Distance and crews

·       Large and expensive shelters should be constantly populated by trained crew, as they are typically far from cities and it takes time to reach them. Such crews should be constantly rotated and paid.

Smaller shelters could be placed inside or near homes and used on warning.

Level of outside contamination

·       The higher the outside contamination, the more complex the technology should be on the inside of the shelter to provide clean air

·       And longer will be time for the environment to return to normal

Low level of outside contamination is advantageous for smaller shelters

Manufacturing

·       Larger shelters allow for the manufacturing of some goods inside, including air, water and food, which increases its ability for long-term survival

·       If the shelter has all types of manufacturing available, it is no longer a shelter, but rather an isolated part of the civilization

·       Smaller shelters will have to survive on stockpiles or people will have to go outside and forage

Number of bunkers

·       One bunker could fail due to an accident, so many bunkers provide the best defense

·       Too many bunkers result in financial overstretch or lowering of their quality

·       Many bunkers in different countries could lead to the continuation of war

·       The first bunker crew which will leave its refuge, would have an advantage in earth repopulation

·       The best bunkers could also act as command centers during a war, causing them to be targeted first (applies to space colonies)

Isolation

·       More isolated bunkers get the best protection

Bunkers able to be opened to outside could control the environment or collect resources from outside

Thermal problems for deep bunkers

·       Geothermal gradient is around 25 C /km, which means that deep bunkers will be overheated. They may need above ground complex cooling systems if they are more than 1 km deep.

·       Submarines don’t have this problem

·       But, large waves in case of impact could affect them

·       Ice glaciers may not have this problem

Types of specialized bunkers

·       Biodefence: many compartments with negative pressure and decontamination tech

·       Military or anti-weaponry: fortresses with defensive and offensive weapons

·       Nuclear: protection against explosions and radioactivity; decontamination facilities

·       Global warming: high in the mountains or in Antarctica

Opportunity cost

·       Large bunkers could provide false feelings of security and encourage risky behavior

·       Building bunkers is very expensive and the same money could make difference in AI safety and biosafety

Forecasting and timing

·       Larger bunkers require more time to build—from several years to decades, and this requires a strong forecasting ability to envision future risks

Autonomous shelters based on super-technologies

·       Could survive many different types of catastrophes

·       Could survive for very long time as nanotech will provide needed manufacturing capabilities.

·       Could function without humans and recreate them from fertilized eggs or as uploads.

·       Will be possible only after the most dangerous phase of technological development is over.

·       Could exist as a life form without humans at all, even as a replicating life form

·       Can’t protect against strong AI

Money

·       Individuals could pay for personal survival by buying places in shelters and thus increase the probability of human survival

·       The buying activity could work as a predictor in the market for global catastrophe (Hanson)

Advertising is often misleading in this field, and private bunkers are not optimal for global survival

Two phases

·       Large shelters should have two functions:

·       Impact phase – ability to withstand acute attack during nuclear war, impact or peak of pandemic

·       Contamination phase – ability to survive long-term in a “dirty” environment.

Different small shelters could be suitable for different functions