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Executive summary: A study comparing AI bots to expert human forecasters on real-world prediction questions found that humans still significantly outperform the best AI systems, though the gap may be narrowing.
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Executive summary: The author argues that working to prevent animal suffering should be prioritized over human welfare due to the extreme violence animals face, the vast numbers affected, and the neglectedness of the cause.
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Executive summary: The shift from global health to animal welfare interventions in effective altruism may backfire due to various challenges, including resistance to imposed changes, social dismissal, politicization, and difficulties in measuring outcomes.
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Executive summary: The "Otherness and control in the age of AGI" essay series explores how deep atheism and moral anti-realism in AI risk discourse can lead to problematic "yang" impulses for control, and proposes incorporating more balanced "yin" and "green" perspectives while still acknowledging key truths about AI risk.
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Executive summary: Subgame-perfect Nash Equilibrium in extensive-form games requires rational best responses at each decision point, but real-world behavior often deviates due to fairness considerations and social preferences.
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Executive summary: Rethink Priorities' tools for evaluating cause prioritization suggest that animal welfare interventions are often more cost-effective than global health and development, but the optimal allocation depends critically on moral uncertainty, diminishing returns, and decision-making procedures.
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Executive summary: The author argues that experiences can vary in "size" in addition to hedonic intensity, and that this size dimension should be incorporated into hedonic theories of welfare and interspecies welfare comparisons.
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Executive summary: MATS ran a series of AI safety discussion groups for their Summer 2024 Program, covering key topics like AI capabilities, timelines, training challenges, deception risks, and governance approaches to help scholars develop critical thinking skills about AI safety.
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Executive summary: The post outlines procedures for making donations to European organizations tax-deductible in France, including legal requirements, potential strategies, and recommendations for specific organizations.
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Executive summary: The author feels torn between two possible futures - one of normal progress and one rapidly transformed by AI - and argues we may be underprepared for the challenges posed by advanced AI systems that could emerge in the coming decade.
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