I think some number of crying-wolf-adjacent incidents in the future are inevitable as I said in the post. Doesn't mean we can't at least try to make it harder for people to weaponise them against us by hedging, acknowledging uncertainty etc. 

like I said, this is just my opinion. open to arguments for why signalling confidence is actually the right move, even at the risk of lost credibility

I have mixed feelings about the AIS memes account but would generally agree that they tend to sensationalise things. I guess I still wouldn't describe this as "crying wolf" in the way I've defined it, but maybe my definition is too pedantic and misses the spirit of the complaint.