Great to have more discussion on this topic. Some thoughts... (1) the effects of climate change are not a probabilty but already occurring so may not be understood as hierarcharally similar to the risk of an ASRS that has not still occurred; (2) an ASRS could be more probable in a world exposed to higher tensions related with food shocks occurring as a result of climate change; (3) specifically thinking on the model results, I wonder if any of these models has been able to dissect the effect of lower temperatures to those related with lower radiation and lower rainfall associated with the ASRS (otherwise overall effects could be underestimated); (4) I also wonder about the reliability of these models to represent the effect of temperature reductions vs. to represent the effect of radiation reductions (probably more accurate in representing T reduction and thus, other effects of an ASRS not attenuated by global warming - reduced rainfall, radiation, UV- , still important in crop failure).
Great to have more discussion on this topic. Some thoughts... (1) the effects of climate change are not a probabilty but already occurring so may not be understood as hierarcharally similar to the risk of an ASRS that has not still occurred; (2) an ASRS could be more probable in a world exposed to higher tensions related with food shocks occurring as a result of climate change; (3) specifically thinking on the model results, I wonder if any of these models has been able to dissect the effect of lower temperatures to those related with lower radiation and lower rainfall associated with the ASRS (otherwise overall effects could be underestimated); (4) I also wonder about the reliability of these models to represent the effect of temperature reductions vs. to represent the effect of radiation reductions (probably more accurate in representing T reduction and thus, other effects of an ASRS not attenuated by global warming - reduced rainfall, radiation, UV- , still important in crop failure).