Interesting post. Just a quick comment on the effectiveness of "research and dissemination" and "Spreading “we’re all in this together” frames" type interventions. These sound similar to interventions that policymakers try time and again in response to disasters because they're intuitive, despite the fact that they don't work very well or at all.

The source I linked describes a comparison of interventions for pandemic response in the general public, so it's not directly applicable, but I worry a similar issue may be at hand here. The interventions aimed at changing minds generally have negligible effects, especially compared to other interventions such as providing social support and tapping into individuals’ behavioral skills and habits as well as removing practical obstacles to behavior.

I don't know what the equivalent on the "nuclear war prevention" area is of these other interventions that work well for pandemic response, but I do worry that the "knowledge and beliefs" type interventions proposed would also be negligible like they are in this other field.

Thank you so much for writing and sharing this resource Sam, and again I can't thank you enough for your support in helping us launch our policy org ORCG, we quite probably could not have done it without you.

I was reading one today I think on a similar vein to those you mention

https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/75844/9781800647886.pdf?sequence=1#page=226

There is peer-reviewed literature estimating that this work is likely to be more cost-effective than GiveWell interventions for saving lives in the present generation, and likely more cost-effective than artificial general intelligence safety for improving the long run future (resilient foods and resilience to loss of electricity/industry).

Other independent or non-academic related evaluations of cost-effectiveness can be found here:

• Unjournal's 1st eval is up: Resilient foods paper
• Intermediate Report on Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios
• Speedrun: Demonstrate the ability to rapidly scale food production in the case of nuclear winter
• Famine deaths due to the climatic effects of nuclear wa
• Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations

if this space was closer to my grantmaking, I'd be excited to fund a fully neutral study into these questions.

Here's hoping that the new set of studies on this funded by FLI (~$4 million) will shed light on the issue within the next few years.

https://futureoflife.org/grant-program/nuclear-war-research/

May I suggest: https://allfed.info/research/publications-and-reports

True, not only outreach but also sufficient engagement/retention is needed in order to reliably increase the ratio.

That's correct. Artificial intelligence and engineered pandemics are just given as examples of things that may fall under the category of threats from emerging technologies.