Fascinating work; thanks for sharing it. The graphs are clear and helpful, and the regression models seem quite informative. Bravo.

Fair point. I guess the key problem is the lamentable lack of research on nuclear winter compared to other possible forms of climate change.

Google Scholar for example shows only 14,900 entries for "nuclear winter", versus 2.6 million for 'global warming', and 3 million for 'climate change'.

So, we've got roughly 375 times as much research on global warming as on nuclear winter.

But that analysis by Luisa Rodriguez still predicts a fairly bad nuclear autumn that could kill roughly 30 to 90% of humanity.

Chris -- well said. I think this is accurate.

The e/acc movement has a lot of flagrantly macho rhetoric, and they tend to portray people concerned about AI safety as weak, effeminate, neurotic, and fearful.

On the other hand, they seem to be eager to dive into a kind of fetishistic submission to AI, which isn't actually very macho.

I know it may be considered unseemly to psycho-analyze their movement on EA Forum, but, as you say, it's a movement driven by vibes, image, and rhetoric, rather than by rational/empirical arguments, and they need to be confronted on that basis.

Jason - good points. 

Even for EAs who live in major cities, it can be helpful to cultivate good relationships with friends or extended family who live in lower-density areas, in case situations escalate (e.g. nuclear brinksmanship, pandemic intensifies) enough that it's worth leaving the city.

In terms of prepping with supplies, it's worth remembering that if one doesn't have effective means to defend one's supplies from others who might want them, one's basically just storing up stuff that will end up being taken by others. In some countries, 'effective defense' just means good fences and locks; in other countries, it means AR-15s. 

The best defense is often just 'op sec' (operational security), meaning, don't brag about being a prepper in public, on social media, or in giving away cues of prepping (e.g. survivalist bumper stickers or house signs), which just makes one a target for others.

Granted, the idea of taking over a sovereign nation seems unrealistic, unethical, and dubious on many levels.

However, the general idea of prepping to survive a global catastrophe should not be considered weird or embarrassing for EAs. If we support the Svalbard Global Seed Vault in Norway, or efforts to make sure crucial knowledge is widely distributed in printed form, why not support other collective efforts to maximize the likelihood that humans can bounce back after a near-extinction event?

Millions of Americans are 'doomsday preppers' or survivalists who have stockpiled food, water, tools, gold, guns, ammo, etc in case of a catastrophe (aka a SHTF or TEOTWAWKI event). They often network with neighbors, church members, or other like-minded people to form little survivalist communities, especially in rural or exurban areas. I think that's probably a net good, and it builds some much-needed resilience into human civilization.

Given that many EAs are seriously concerned about global catastrophic risks, and take the Toby Ord estimates seriously that we might face at least a 1/6 chance of X risk in this century, it's not at all weird that some EAs should get into prepping. 

The main objection seems political rather than practical. Prepping is associated with American conservatives, and much of the American mainstream media (including Quartz online magazine, the source of this story) has a lefty disdain for preppers, or anything prepper-adjacent.

This is a wonderful and helpful guide; thanks very much for writing and sharing it!

For a leisurely day out, I'd also recommend a couple of clusters of attractions:

1. In Brooklyn, there's a great cluster of stuff within walking distance: Brooklyn Museum (great medium-sized art museum), Brooklyn Botanic Garden (beautiful plants & walks), Prospect Park (huge public park, very popular and lovely), and Prospect Park Zoo.
2. In lower Manhattan, there's a cluster around Whitney Museum of American Art (large modern art museum), the Highline Park (an elevated linear park), and the contemporary art galleries in Chelsea (from 19th to 25th streets)

Either of these attraction-clusters make a great day out.

trevor - I'm not sure I follow your point here. Please expand on it a little bit? Thanks!

Greg - thanks for this helpful overview of the UN meeting on AI.

Interesting that Mozambique seems savvier about AI X-risk than many bigger countries. 

I suspect that there's a potential narrative that could be developed (e.g. by the AI Pause community, or AGI moratorium community) that runaway AGI research involves big rich countries -- especially the US -- imposing extinction risk on smaller poorer countries. Yet another example of rich-country hubris, or a kind of 'X-risk colonialism', where the key AI countries are charging ahead, doing their thing, imposing huge 'risk externalities' on other countries, civilizations, and cultures without their consent.

It's also striking that when AI industry advocates talk about the benefits of AI, it generally concerns US-centric issues such as promoting longevity, advanced-country prosperity, automation, space colonization, etc., rather than addressing the kinds of issues that poorer countries might care more about -- e.g. promoting the rule of law, property rights, stable currencies, public health, basic education, government integrity, etc.  So, if I was a bright young person living in Brazil, Nigeria, India, or Morocco, the AI industry would seem like it's trying to solve first-world problems, while imposing huge and scary risks on my people and my country.

I suspect that this 'AI X risk neo-colonialism' narrative would be difficult for the AI industry to deal with, since so many of the AI leaders and researchers seem to be living in a Bay Area culture bubble that gives little thought to the risks (and benefits) they're imposing on the 96% of humans who don't live in the U.S. 

Linch - thanks very much. That's super helpful; it's just the kind of thing I'm looking for!