If it's literally a waste product, I don't see why that should matter. The costs should just be for processing and transportation, which would also apply to ordinary milk? Yet in my area whey protein powder costs about 30x as much as milk per oz.

It seems that users on this forum want to upvote content which is rigorous and true. So the way to gain karma is to write 10 pages defending a thesis that is obvious, as opposed to writing half a page introducing a thesis that is revolutionary.

That's not necessarily a problem. I feel like the EA Forum wants to be the end of an idea pipeline, the last step where ideas get final scrutiny, and are stamped for epistemic rigor and community consensus. Yet the beginning and middle of the pipeline sort of don't seem to exist? At least not on the public internet.

Anyway, let me know if there's a better place to post my weird EA ideas. My general sense is that weird ideas are not super welcome here.

If what you're saying is true, why is whey protein so expensive?

Do you know of anything which directly addresses the argument I made here?

My vague impression is that the optimism I see is based on outside-view type forecasts, and people have mostly not taken inside views. I haven't thought much about bird flu recently though.

Thanks.

Regarding decreased demand for GPUs -- I agree Deepseek v3 is evidence that demand will decrease. But o3 seems like evidence that demand will increase, since we'll be doing more test-time compute. Unclear which evidence is more compelling.

Interesting. Seems like the obvious way to resolve this disagreement would be to check benchmarks for SCALE. 6 months ago, in this reddit thread, they said benchmarks will "become publicly available in the near future". So, join their discord if you're holding Nvidia stock, I guess?

Great comment. However, lots of people concerned with safety have quit OpenAI. Wouldn't you expect them to continue working at OpenAI if they thought your argument was correct?

BTW, there might be ways to achieve slowdown through methods other than traditional activism. This could buy valuable time for alignment work without hurting the "AI alignment" brand. For example:

• Commoditize LLMs to reduce the incentive for large training runs

• Point out to NVidia AI is on track to kill their company

(I encourage people to signal boost these ideas if they seem good. No attribution necessary.)

Very interesting idea. Definitely worth discussing.

Brainstorming more possible downsides: Disgruntled workers could grief their employers by leaking intellectual property, just to spite them. That could e.g. create an incentive to automate away humans with compliant AIs.

Browsing Blind could help with thinking up more possible downsides. Actually, the lightweight version of this idea might be to just browse Blind all day, and create a social media feed by screenshotting juicy AI gossip.

One bot per company could struggle to gain followers. Lots of bots would likely languish in obscurity. Perhaps try a single bot for everyone, or all Fortune 500 companies, or all companies in a particular industry (such as AI), etc.

I think putting the raw submission feed on a separate site makes sense. Anyone could make a "Hello world" post, to test things out and verify that the system works as intended, boosting credibility. Pick out interesting highlights from the unfiltered feed of posts, and share them on social media to bring attention to the service / to those particular posts.

I'd say something like it has been such a pleasure working with you that I feel the need to give back to the less fortunate. X charity seems to me to be the most effiecent way to do that as far as I know and I couldn't have supported it without you.

One idea to be less preachy is to frame your donation as a thank you from its recipients to your client. E.g. you could say something like: "I got the money you wired me. Thank you. I thought it might warm your heart to know that I donated 10% of the money to X organization, and as a result Y outcome occurred. So, you have made some Z individuals quite thankful as well!" Basically sort of give them a taste of what it feels like to give effectively.

BTW, I suspect communicating this info will work better in live conversation. If you communicate in live conversation, you create a space for them to ask questions and learn more, plus over time you might get better at bringing it up in a way that's not weird.

Probably depends on how you describe it and frame it.

Yeah, I think there are ways to frame it so it isn't super preachy. E.g. have an "About Me" section on your website that mentions your pledge. Or mention your annual donations during chitchat about the holidays.