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DanielFilan

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I wonder if "the CEA forum" would work? Low edit distance, gives the idea that it's related to EA while not necessarily representing all of it. Downside is that it works less well if CEA changes their name.

FYI to LW old-timers, "MoreRight" evokes the name of a neo-reactionary blog that grew out of the LW community. But I don't think it's a thing anymore?

Things like getting funding, being highly upvoted on the forum, being on podcasts, being high status and being EA-branded are fuzzy and often poor proxies for trustworthiness and of relevant people’s views on the people, projects and organizations in question.

To flesh this out a bit: I run an EA-adjacent podcast (the AI X-risk Research Podcast, tell your friends). I decide to have people on if, based on a potentially-shallow understanding of their work, I think it would be good if people understood their ideas better. Ways this can be true:

  1. I think the guest is right about some important things.
  2. The guest is prominent or influential, meaning that fleshing out their ideas and the justifications thereof might change various people's minds.

There's also gating for whether or not the guest is too busy or doesn't want to be on a podcast.

At any rate, it doesn't mean that I think the guest is right about the important things.

Note that if you take observations of tic-tac-toe superintelligent ANI (plays the way we know it would play, we can tie with it if we play first), then of AlphaZero chess, then of top go bots, and extrapolate out along the dimension of how rich the strategy space of the domain is (as per Eliezer's comment), I think you get a different overall takeaway than the one in this post.

The situation in go looks different:

  • New top-of-the-line go bots play different openings than we had in 2015, including ideas we thought were bad (e.g. early 3-3 invasions).
  • Humans have now adopted go bot opening sequences.

That said:

  • Go bots are not literally omnipotent, there is a handicap level at which humans can beat them.
  • We can gain insight into go bot play by looking at readouts and thinking for ages.
  • It is possible for humans to beat top go bots in a fair fight...
    • ... but the way that happened was by training an adversary go bot to specifically do that, and copying that adversary's play style.

For what it's worth, I don't see an option to buy a kindle version on Amazon - screenshot here

Seems like to the degree it's valid, it's actionable for people who might consider working with or funding Redwood.

Re: the MIRI employees, it seems relevant that they're "former" rather than current employees, given that you'd expect there to be more former than current employees, and former employees presumably don't have MIRI as a major figure in their lives.

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