I appreciate your catching this, David - I would not have noticed this and would have been pretty confused by Linch's comment. I did go back and edit the transcript to align with the video, and I appreciate your noting this. 

Edited per your excellent comment that the text flipped the meaning of the video:

The third point is that alternative proteins address multiple risks to long-term flourishing and they should be a priority for longtermists. I'm not going to try to convince you they should be the priority or that they're on par with AI risk or bioengineered pandemics. But I am going to try to convince you that unless you are working for an organization that is focused on one thing, you should add alternative proteins to your portfolio if you are focused on longtermism.

Also slightly edited this bit to better capture the video: 

[16:40] In Toby Ord's book The Precipice he says, "Risks greater than 1 in 1,000 should be central global priorities." ... my goal is not going to be to convince you [that] if you're working on unaligned AI or bioengineered pandemics (What are they - 1 in 10 and 1 in 30 existential risks) that this is something that you should do instead. But if you are working in policy... you can have a more diverse portfolio than unaligned AI and bioengineered pandemics. In fact, it's probably to our benefit to have a more diverse portfolio. And I would contend that alternative proteins should be a part of that portfolio for all of the reasons that I've just described...

Linch, thanks so much for your comment. I think I agree with all of it, and I was pretty confused initially, b/c I didn’t realize the transcription error. 

But yes, as David notes, the transcript flipped my point: I am not arguing that any of the external costs of alt proteins clock in at anywhere near a 1 in 10 or 1 in 30 X-risk.

My point is just (as noted in # 3 of my synopsis) that they are "sufficiently high... to warrant attention from longtermists” who are in a position to advance more than one thing (e.g., working in government or philanthropy, where you can have a portfolio). 

Examples: 

- Government: Adding alt proteins to one’s portfolio will often be fairly easy - e.g., at OSTP or NSF or in a congressional office.

- Philanthropy: Some philanthropists will insist on giving with a focus on global health, biodiversity, or climate; where that happens, steering them toward alt proteins can make a lot of sense. 

Apologies for the transcription error - fixed, as detailed in my next comment. 

Thanks so much for your comments, Vasco - I appreciate your engagement, and I find your comments fascinating. 

I'm sorry for my shoddy wording. Yes, my point (thanks for jumping in, Benny!) was only that if animal agriculture doubles by 2050, that will double these harms, which are already quite severe. I updated bullet two of my introduction to make this clear.

Hi Holly - would you mind sending me your email address? I'm at brucef@gfi.org. Thanks so much! 

This is all fascinating, thanks.

I'm curious about folks' thinking on plant-based meat. GFI's scientific grants program has put $7m+ into plant-based and cultivated (aka cell-based) meat research over the past two years, and our science team is equally bullish on plant-based v. cultivated.

In short, we think it's likely that plant-based will get to the Holy Grail (products that taste the same or better and cost the same or less, which is the only way the products compete for the consumer dollar of the vast majority of consumers) at least as quickly as cultivated. So we think open access R&D into plant-based is as important as open access R&D into cultivated.

I'm very curious about others' thoughts on these assumptions.

To see the projects GFI has funded so far (with dedicated funding from a limited number of philanthropists), the scientific team that makes the decisions, and our funding philosophy, check out gfi.org/researchgrants. Two of our grantees published peer reviewed journal articles just last month, and another had an article in the trade association magazine Cereal Foods World.

Thanks so much to everyone who is focused on making the most effective funding decisions possible.

Bruce (GFI)

Hi All,

Sorry for my delayed response; I’ve been traveling. To Jason’s questions:

Can we spend this money effectively & efficiently? I believe that we could spend significantly more than $2.6 million effectively and efficiently. We have seven departments at GFI, and five of them (innovation, science & tech, policy, international engagement, & corporate engagement) would profit immensely from more staff.

One of the first things I did with our current GFI staff was to work with them to create plans that include goals, metrics, and expansion plans. As of right now, we believe that we could spend about $4 million/year efficiently and effectively, mostly by expanding our innovation, scientific, and international programs. To be clear, I have no doubt that we could spend much more than that on our mission without any fluff; we just haven't planned yet beyond $4 million/year.

GFI’s Success with Development: We are aware (and profoundly grateful) that our mission and programs have proven appealing to donors that care about ensuring that their donor dollars are spent based on EA principles; we were founded explicitly as an EA nonprofit, so EA principles are the basis for 100 percent of our decisions. But launching a new organization and attracting the necessary support in start-up mode is one thing. Maintaining this momentum along with a robust revenue stream in the years to come is a very different challenge and one we need be aware of and plan for now.

We don’t take for granted that it will be straightforward to maintain the current levels of support, and we will be continuously assessing how best to maintain and grow our funding base. A few things that we’re thinking about in this regard are:

First, GFI is in our launch year, so securing all the resources to fund the first full 12 months of operations is key, so that we’re not distracted from or delayed in rolling out our four programs as planned.

Second, a part of that $2.6 million is the creation of an operating reserve, so that no one is at risk of losing her/his job; we see this as a fiduciary obligation for any nonprofit and perhaps especially for a new one like GFI. Fortunately, the Open Philanthropy Project agreed with this assessment and was happy to see a significant portion of their donation go into creating this reserve.

Third, an ancillary point: Gift support trails off significantly in Q1 and Q2 (and even into Q3). Therefore, it’s vital for GFI to secure a robust input of gifts and grants in Q4 of 2016 (and in future Q4’s) , to “smooth out” this seasonal dip in revenues and ensure that all programs can continue without abatement.

And of course, a reserve also safeguards against external factors that are outside GFI’s control and that might affect future revenues, such as dips in the economy that adversely affect giving, something I’ve experienced repeatedly in the past, most notably in 2001 after 9-11 and in 2008 during the economic downturn. It certainly seems possible that such a downturn could be coming, considering our current political situation.

New Harvest Comparison: I love New Harvest (I am a donor and have been a fan since Jason Matheny founded the group), but of course GFI’s mission and focus are different from New Harvest’s. As Jason notes, NH directly funds research in cellular agriculture and self-identifies as a research institute. We think that's great, but it's a different approach from ours. First, we focus on both plant-based and cellular alternatives to animal agriculture. Second, we have four program areas, three of which do not overlap with NH's focus much or at all. That sort of research is a part of our program area four, though we’re focused on raising money for research rather than funding it directly. And we seek out the researchers who will be best-positioned to answer the most critical questions in plant-based and cellular agriculture. We just hired the project manager for this project (see www.gfi.org/our-team, Erin Rees Clayton), who has a Ph.D. from Duke and extensive experience in grant-writing. I’m happy to discuss our thinking on this (and anything else) with anyone who is interested, of course.

So in conclusion, we are convinced that our initial fundraising goal of $2.6 million is what’s required to ensure that our first year of operations is fully funded and that we’re meeting our fiduciary obligations to both programs and staff.

Should a steady stream of additional resources become available through increased philanthropic support, we believe that we will be able to spend that money effectively and efficiently. Our main issue will be hiring at a reasonable pace, so that everyone is fully trained and so that we maintain our commitment to exclusively exceptional staff.

GFI is strongly committed to transparency, and we are more than happy to share our Strategic Plan and expansion plan thinking with anyone who is interested in learning more.