Universe's resources
Ord, Toby (2021) The edges of our universe, ArXiv, 2104.01191.
This is not an upper-bound on the possible number of people, however. If humans are ultimately able to colonize other star systems, then they will not be limited by Earth’s ability to sustain life. Given certain assumptions, Bostrom estimates that humanity could eventually reach 1018 to 1020 stars, which could sustain a total of around 1035 biological human beings, or around 1058 digital human minds.minds.[2]
Nick Bostrom argues that, barring disaster, Earth will be capable of sustaining life for approximately another billion years (Bostrom 2012).years.[1] This means that if Earth’s population were to remain fairly close to what is today, then, assuming hundred-year life-spans, the planet would ultimately host about 1016 people.
This is not an upper-bound on the possible number of people, however. If humans are ultimately able to colonize other star systems, then they will not be limited by Earth’s ability to sustain life. Given certain assumptions, Bostrom estimates that humanity could eventually reach 1018 to 1020 stars, which could sustain a total of around 1035 biological human beings, or around 1058 digital human minds (Bostrom, Dafoe & Flynn 2020: 319).minds.[2]
BibliographyFurther reading
Related entries
astronomical waste | computational power of the human brain | non-humans and the long-term future | space colonization | whole brain emulation
- ^
Bostrom, Nick (2013) Existential risk prevention as global priority, Global Policy, vol. 4, pp. 15–31.
An attempt to justify these estimates in greater depth, and to highlight the importance of existential risk prevention. - ^
Bostrom, Nick, Allan Dafoe & Carrick Flynn (2020) Public policy and superintelligent AI, in S. Matthew Liao (ed.) Ethics of Artificial Intelligence, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 293-
326.326, p. 319.Related entriesastronomical waste|computational power of the human brain|non-humans and the long-term future|space colonization|whole brain emulation
Christiano, Paul (2013) Astronomical waste, Rational Altruist, April
If humanity does not go prematurely extinct,extinct, the number of people—or moral patients generally—who will ultimately exist could beis potentially astronomical. These figures are useful for judging the value of work aimed at influencing the long-term future, and in particular for estimating the importance of avoiding existential risks.
Nick Bostrom argues that, barring disaster, Earth will be capable of sustaining life for approximately another billion years (Bostrom 2012). This means that if Earth’s population were to remain fairly close to what is today, then, assuming hundred-year life-spans, the planet would ultimately host about 1016 people.
This is not an upper-bound on the possible number of people, however. If humans are ultimately able to colonize other star systems, then they will not be limited by Earth’s ability to sustain life. Given certain assumptions, Bostrom estimates that, given certain assumptions,that humanity could eventually reach 1018 to 1020 stars, which could sustain a total of around 1035 biological human beings, or around 1058 digital human minds (Bostrom, Dafoe & Flynn 2020: 319).
If humanity does not go prematurely extinct, the number of people—or moral patients generally—who will ultimately exist could be astronomical. These figures are useful for judging the value of work that influences aimed at influencing thethe long-term future, and in particular for judging how important it is to avoidestimating the importance of avoiding existential risks.
If humanity does not go prematurely extinct, the number of people—or moral patients generally—who will ultimately exist could be astronomical. These figures are useful for judging the value of work that influences the long-term future, and in particular for judging how important it is to avoid existential risks.
It has been estimatedIf humanity does not go prematurely extinct, the number of moral patients who will ultimately exist could be astronomical. These figures are useful for judging the value of work that influences the long-term future, and in particular for judging how important it is to avoid existential risks.
Nick Bostrom argues that, barring disaster, Earth will capable of sustaining life for approximately another billion years (Bostrom 2012). This means that if Earth’s population were to remain fairly close to what is today, then, assuming hundred-year life-spans, the planet would ultimately host about 1016 people.
This is not an upper-bound on the possible number of people, however. If humans are ultimately able to colonize other star systems, then they will not be limited by Earth’s ability to sustain life. Bostrom estimates that, given certain assumptions, humanity could eventually reach 1018 to 1020 stars, which could sustain a total of around 1035 biological human beings, or around 1058 digital human minds (Bostrom, Dafoe & Flynn 2020: 319). (These figures use 'humans' as the relevant metric for convenience only, as are not meant to make any substantive assumptions about moral patienthood.)
Bostrom, Nick (2013) Existential risk prevention as global priority, Global Policy, vol. 4, pp. 15–31.
An attempt to justify these estimates in greater depth, and to highlight the importance of existential risk prevention.
astronomical waste | computational power of the human brain | non-humans and the long-term future | space colonization | whole brain emulation
Christiano, Paul (2013) Astronomical waste, Rational Altruist, April
Bostrom, Nick, Allan Dafoe & Carrick Flynn (2020) Public Policypolicy and Superintelligentsuperintelligent AI, in S. Matthew Liao (ed.), Ethics of Artificial Intelligence, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 293-326.
The universe's resources (sometimes called the cosmic endowment) is the stock of physical resources in the universe currently accessible to humanity.
It has been estimated that, given certain assumptions, humanity could eventually reach 1018 to 1020 stars, which could sustain a total of around 1035 biological human beings, or around 1058 digital human minds (Bostrom, Dafoe & Flynn 2020: 319). (These figures use 'humans' as the relevant metric for convenience only, as are not meant to make any substantive assumptions about moral patienthood.)
Bibliography
Adams, Fred C. (2008) Long-term astrophysical processes, in Nick Bostrom & Milan M. Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 33–47.
Bostrom, Nick, Allan Dafoe & Carrick Flynn (2020) Public Policy and Superintelligent AI, in S. Matthew Liao (ed.), Ethics of Artificial Intelligence, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 293-326.
The universe's resources (sometimes called
thehumanity's cosmic endowment) is the stock of physical resources in the universe currently accessible to humanity.