Soares, Nate (2021) "Comments on Carlsmith'Carlsmith’s 'Is“Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?'”", LessWrong., November 13.
Carlsmith, Joseph (2021) Draft report on existential risk from power-seeking AI, Effective Altruism Forum, April 28.
Soares, Nate (2022) AGI ruin scenarios are likely (and disjunctive), Effective Altruism Forum, July 27.
Both types of models are simplifying assumptions. In reality, a disaster can be caused by multiple conditions that interact conjunctively and disjunctively. For example, a disaster D could occur if conditionconditions C1 and C2 are true, or if condition C3 is true: D=(C1∩C2)∪C3.
Models of catastrophic risks can be conjunctive or disjunctive. A conjunctive risk model is one in which the disaster is caused by the co-occurrence of multiple conditions (D=C1∩C2∩…∩Ck). In a conjunctive model, the probability of the disaster is less than or equal to the probabilities of the individual conditions. By contrast, a disjunctive risk model is one in which the disaster occurs as a result of any of several conditions holding (D=C1∪C2∪…∪Ck). In a disjunctive model, the probability of the disaster is greater than or equal to the probabilities of the individual conditions.
Examples of conjunctive and disjunctive risk models of AI risk:
Soares, Nate (2021) "Comments on Carlsmith's 'Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?'" LessWrong.
Models of catastrophic risks can be conjunctive or disjunctive. A conjunctive risk model is one in which the disaster is caused by the co-occurrence of multiple conditions (D=C1∩C2∩…∩Ck). In a conjunctive model, the probability of the disaster is less than or equal to the probabilities of the individual conditions. By contrast, a disjunctive risk model is one in which the disaster occurs as a result of any of several conditions holding (D=C1∪C2∪…∪Ck). In a disjunctive model, the probability of the disaster is greater than or equal to the probabilities of the individual conditions.
Both types of models are simplifying assumptions. In reality, a disaster can be caused by multiple conditions that interact conjunctively and disjunctively. For example, a disaster D could occur if condition C1 and C2 are true, or if condition C3 is true: D=(C1∩C2)∪C3.
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