Thank you!

For fashion brands specifically, the "sustainability" or "ethical" label are a strong PR point for many (and no concern at all for others). This has been leveraged into collaborative changes with such brands in the past, especially by PETA, who used to run more "bad cop" campaigns but now lean more into collaborating. One reason for this can be the growing concern of the public, and specific subgroups of consumers who care or want to show they care about sustainability or animal welfare. Probably also the history of PETA's strong campaigns can lead companies to look for a collaborative approach and compromise, as you said under the threat of a public campaign. The high success of these campaigns also most likely lies in very strategic selection of the brands - PETA and other campaigners usually go for the "low hanging fruit" and target brands that have an image of caring about such issues and are likely to want to maintain it. 
 

Thanks for reading our work and engaging, Ulrik! 
I think your concern is fair and well spotted, we do feel the highest uncertainty in our estimates of likelihood of success. 

Concerning part 1, as far as I know the CE incubation success rate is 80%, which considering our wide interval range is relatively close to 100%. I do agree that it seems to be an additional factor worth including, depending on whether we look at starting a new organisation or supporting an existing one with a good track record.

Concerning part 2, we updated on these numbers several times during the research process. One major source of optimism were our interviews with experts, whose experience suggested ~50% rate of success. We tried to look at past corporate campaigns, but a problem with using the existing data on other corporate campaigns is that the situation for silkworms as insects might be too different than when it comes to cage-free and broiler campaigns. The public concern, place of production and scale of the problem vary too strongly. There is also a long history of fashion corporate campaigns, but it is hard to find the numbers to estimate their average success rate. In our next steps section we highlight the need for a better understanding of the fashion industry and the retailer distribution and the benefits of consulting experts on the topic of fashion campaigns. We would expect this to significantly update our likelihood of success.

To sum it up, I mostly agree with your concerns. With our report we got to a point where we did not have the capacity to resolve these uncertainties in the time given, but know the next steps we would take to get to a more accurate CEA. 

Nice overview of the issue @Moritz Stumpe! It is good to see that the demand for animal skin products has been decreasing so clearly. I wonder if this lower demand has any potential tangible impact on the profitability of the animals that are farmed predominantly for their meat, with their skins being sold as a secondary product.